Demand and Supply Forecast of Milk and the Consumer's Attitude for Milk Purchase

우유수급예측(牛乳需給豫測)과 소비자(消費者)의 우유구매태도(牛乳購買態度)

The purpose of this research are to forecast the demand and supply of milk in Korea, and to obtain information for attitudes affecting milk consumption, which is necessary to make a plan for increasing milk consumption in Korea. The estimation of the milk demand and production was made by the multiplicative decomposition method and the statistical function. Data on consumer were collected from 737 students who were attending primary school, middle school and university in Daejeon during the period of July 11 to July 21, 1988. The results obtained are as follows; 1. The prediction results showed that the production for milk will over supply 21,900 tons in 1,990, 70,800 tons in 1,995 by the multiplicative decomposition method and 45,400 tons in 1990, -51,500 tons in 1995 by the statistical function. 2. It was found that almost all the students awared milk as essential food-stuff of common food stuff for the Koreans. 3. Quite a few students were apt to believe that milk processors added water into fluid milk. 4. Most students showed obtaining information about the nutritional value of milk by school education and advertising of TV, Radio, and Printed media. 5. However, it was found that the advertising by TV, Radio, and Printed media did hardly give to consumers influences on the choice of a particular milk brand. Accordingly, the conclusions are as follows; 1. Need to provide consumers with well planned education programs on the nutritional value of milk. 2. Heavy brand advertising for fluid milk may mislead the understanding of consumer, since city milk is not much differentiated in Korea. Therefore the milk processors should put more efforts in generic milk promotion by reducing brand advertizement. 3. The milk processors should provide major portion of financing for generic milk promotion program.