적정 진급인원수 결정 및 진급확률 민감도 분석

Determination of the Appropriate Promotion Size and Sensitivity Analysis of Promotion Probabilities

A markov chain is used to derive the models for determining the size of persons to be promoted and for conducting the sensitivity analysis of promotion probabilities. To compute the former case a future wastage rate is forecasted by using the double exponential smoothing method. The model for sensitivity analysis is used to simulate the impact of change in graded-size targets and hiring policy on the promotion probabilities.