Optimum Port Investement with an Infinite Planning Horizon

The economic theory approach represented by de Weille and Ray is theoretically more exhaustive than the operations research approach for the determination of the optimum port investment although neither approach in itself is complete. however, the difficulties of measuring benefits resulting from a new investment make the economic approaach difficult to apply. In other paper written by this author, the conditions under which the measurement problem could be avoided are derived and discussed. That is, in modeling a port investment problem, it is proven that under the assumptions of a continuously increasing volume of cargo and a sufficiently large planning horizon, the benefit maximization model results in the same solution value as the cost minimization model. In determining the solution procedures, a dynamic programming model is applied in the case of a finite planing horizon in that paper. In this paper, the solution procedures for an infinite planning horizon will be discussed.

本 論文은 特定 항구에 있어서 그 港口를 利用하는 貨物量이 매년 끊임없 이 增加하고, 同時에 計劃期間이 無限할 경우의 적정 투자시기와 投資規模를 결 정하는 모델에 관한 것이다. 解法으로는 通信위성에 있어서의 最少費用投資問題 를 다룬 스노우(Snow)의 모델이 港灣投資 결정에 맞도록 修正 補完되었고 실제 적인 解法은 컴퓨터 시뮤레이숀 방법이 이용되었다. 지금까지의 항만투자 결정모 델이 한 순간(one-shot)모델의 特性을 띈 情態 모델인데 반해, 本 모델은 적정투 자의 時期와 規模를 動態的으로 다룰 수 있게 해 준다는 특징을 갖는다.