Long-term International Oil Trade Model for the Analysis of Oil Price and Economic Growth

세계원유가격 및 경제성장분석을 위한 장기국제원유무역모형

Since energy consumption of developing countries is expected to grow rapidly over the coming decades, the oil-importing developing countries are likely to encounter chronic balance-of-payments difficulties. To analyze the quantitative impacts of this problem, we develop a computable model of international trade. This paper presents four alternative cases - varying the assumptions with respect to energy supplies. This shows that relatively small difference in supplies can lead to 100% differences in the energy prices projected for 1990.