바퀴, Blattella germanica 개체군 증가의 예측을 위한 온도의존 Simulation Model 의 구성

Construction of a Temperature-dependent Simulation Model to Predict Population Growth of the German

By using temperatures as a key variable, a simulation model was constructed to predict the size and developmental speed for the German cockroach population. The following three research steps were conducted to implement the individual simulation technique to represent the basic life system of the cockroach. First, informations on developmental periods and survival rates in each life stage were obtained through rearing experiments at five different temperatures. Secondly, biological parameters needed for modeling were obtained based on these rearing results. The logistic equation was applied to calculating the developmental speed, while the averages of survival rates were utilized as parameters determining population size. And thirdly, a basic life model was constratued in a stimulative framework in FORTRAN for predicting the populating development on the individual basis. For this purpose the biological characteristics, such as life stage, age in days, developmental speed, fecundity, etc., were assigned as an inherent attribute of the transactiion so that they could accompany each individual automatically all through the simulation. This gave the model flexibility and applicability in representing the isnect life system. The save memory space in computer programing, two files were utilized in translocating the individual informations each other as time proceeded. The developed model could be effectively used as a strategic tool in interpreting and managing the cockroach population. It was also suggested in this study that the individual simulation could efficiently serve as a basis to formulate a fundamental framework on which the advanced and complex life process could be built.