축산물(畜産物) 수요(需要)의 장기여측(長期予測)에 관(關)한 연구(硏究)

A Study on the Long Term Demand Estimation for the Livestock Products

The demand for livestock and poultry products including beef, pork, chicken, egg and milk whose income elasticities are relatively higher than other staple foods, has been increased significantly during the past two decades in response to the remarkable increase in per capita GNP. This trend will be continued during the fifth and the sixth five year economic development plan period beginning with 1982. The annual GNP growth rate will be 7.5% on the average during the next 10 years. It is greatly needed to estimate the demand for beef, pork, chicken egg and milk and to study the feasibilities of domestic production of livestock products for the formulation of adequate policies in order to equate the consumption and the production during the 1980s. So this study reviewed the possible changes in the food consumption patterns during the 1980s, estimated the demand for beef, pork, chicken, egg and milk by using empirical demand functions and finally made suggestions for the formulation of long term price stabilization policies for each livestock, poultry and dairy products through the equilibrium of the quantity of demand for and supply of the products. There are many factors affecting the demand for meats, but this study considered own price, prices of supplements and substitutes and per capita income as the independent variables in the demand equations. It was found that it's own price and income were most significantly affecting factors among others and the degree of substitution effects were remarkably different among the products. According to the meat demand derived in this study, per capita consumption of beef, pork and chicken in the base year 1982 was 11.2kg for total meat, 2.5kg beef, 6.0kg pork and 2.5kg chicken, 106 pieces egg, 15.1kg milk respectively, while those in 1991 were 19.3kg for total meat, 4.8kg beef, 9.6kg pork, 4.9kg chicken, 133pieces egg and 44.1kg milk. It is also predicted through this study that, when the level of production costs be maintained, the domestic production of pork and chicken will meet the demand for them during the fifth and sixth five year economic plan period. However, there will be chronic shortage of beef supply during the coming years. The annual import requirement will be 30,000tons to 40,000tons during the period. In order to stabilize the domestic livestock and poultry and dairy products market, the government should introduce measures to curb the increase in beef consumption by encouraging the consumption of pork and chicken. For this, the livestock production policy measures should be concentrated on : 1) the improvement of infrastructures of beef production by introducing advanced feeding and management technology, subsidies for the establishment of facilities and price support programs for farmers : 2) the development of dairy beef : 3) the reinforcement of the forecast systems for pork and chicken production and consumption.