Stochastic Simulation of Monthly Streamflow by Gamma Distribution Model

Gamma 분포모델에 의한 하천유량의 Simulation에 관한 연구

The prupose of this study are the theoretical examination of Gamma distribution function and its application to hydraulic engineering, that is studying the simulation of monthly streamflow by the Gamma distribtution function model(Gamma Model) based on Monte Carlo technique. In the analysis, monthly streamflow data in the Nak Dong River, the Han River, and the Keum River were used and the data were changed to modular coefficient in order to make the analysis convenient. At first, the fitness of monthly streamflow to 2-Parameter Gamma distribution was tested by Chi-square and Kolmogrov-Smironov test, by which it was found the monthly streamflow were fit well to this Gamma distribution function. Then, the Gamma Model based on the Gamma distribution and Monte Carlo Method was used in the simulation of monthly streamflow, and simulateddata showed that all their stastical characteristics were preserved well in the simulation. Consequently, it can be concluded that the Gamma Model is suitable for the simulation of monthly streamflow series directly by using the Mote Carlo technique.

본 연구는 Gamma 분포의 이론적 검토와 이의 수공학에의 적용, 즉 Gamma 분포의 적합성 및 Gamma 모델에 의한 하천유량의 Simulation에 대한 연구와 검토를 행하는데 그 목적을 두고 있다. 분석에 있어서 우리나라 주요하천(낙동강, 한강 및 금강)의 월유량자료를 사용하였으며 분석을 간단하게 하기 위하여 자료를 Modular coefficient로 변환시켰다. 먼저 이변수 Gamma 분포형에 대한 월류량에의 적합성을 검정하였으며 이로부터 Gamma 분포형과 Monto Carlo 기법을 기초로 한 Gamma 모델에 의하여 월류량의 Simulation을 행하였다. 그 결과 기록치와 매우 근접한 Simulation 자료를 얻을 수 있었다.