Technological Forecasting and Its Application to Military R&D Programming

기술예측 방법론 및 이의 군사연구계획에의 응용

This paper is to explore technological forecasting methodologies and their application to military R&D programming. Among a number of forecasting methodologies, eight frequently used methods are explained. They are; Delphi method, analogy, growth curve, trend extrapolation, analytical model, breakthrough, normative method, and combined method. Due to the characteristic situation of a developing country, the application of technological forecasting to the Korean military R&D programming is limited. Therefore, only two forecasting methods such as Delphi and normative method are utilized in the development of a decision model for the military R&D programming. The model consists of a dynamic programming using decision tree model, which optimizes the total cost to equip a certain military item under a given range of risk during a given period. Some pitfalls in forecasting methodologies and of the model are discussed.