STATISTICAL PREDICTION OF THE ANNUAL CATCHES OF ANCHOVY, ENGRAULIS JAPONICA, IN KOREA BY MEANS OF PAST DATA

어획 통계고에 의한 멸치의 장기 변동 분석

By means of past data, taken from the annual catches of anchovy landings in Korea, from the year 1926 to 1967, as reported in the Annual Statistical deports of Fisheries, the future annual catches from the year 1968 to 1973 were predicted by statistical extrapolation. The trend C(t) in the 42 year period above was interpreted by the least square method. Also, the ratio of the actual annual catches Ct to this trend C(t) was regarded as a stationary variate and the serial correlation coefficients $r_k$ were calculated. The type of statistical variate model was therefore determined by the correlogram. A periodical analysis, using Whittaker's method, was performed and a harmonic analysis was also performed. According to these calculations the stationary variate at was fixed and the annual catches following the year 1967 were predicted by extrapolation.

1926년~1967년의 42년간의 년간 총어획고를 자료로 하여 Periodogram 분석 방법에 의한 어황 보간과 어황 예측을 한 결과 다음을 얻었다.