확률론적 추정 기법을 적용한 주거형 오피스텔의 최적 분양가 산정 모델 개발 기초연구

A Basic Study on Estimation Model Development by Applying Probabilistic Forecasting Method for Determining Optimal Price of Residential Officetel

In response to the economic depression, the demand for fixed rent income has increased according to the easing construction regulations. it caused indiscriminated investment to stakeholders. This leads to oversupply in the multi-family Housing market and increases unsold housing and vacancy rates except specific area such as Gangnam-gu.In order to solve this issue, although studies on the optimization price of apartment houses has been conducted, the study is insufficient regarding on residential officetel. Therefore, the objective is to suggest a basic study on optimal price estimation model development by using probabilistic forecasting method in planning phase. To achieve the objective, first, variables are defined such as expenses, financial costs, income, etc. Second, causal loop diagram is suggested. Third, basic optimization prices estimation model is developed. In the future, this study can be used as one of decision making tools in planning phase of officetel development projects.