Application of Risk Management to Forecasting Transportation Demand by Delphi Technique

Delphi기법을 통한 교통수요예측 Risk Management 적용 방안

  • 정성봉 (서울과학기술대학교 철도전문대학원, 철도경영정책학과) ;
  • 이수호 (서울과학기술대학교 철도전문대학원, 철도경영정책학과) ;
  • 남궁백규 (서울과학기술대학교 철도전문대학원, 철도경영정책학과)
  • Published : 2011.05.26

Abstract

Since 'The Act on Private Investment of The Infrastructure' was established in 1994, private investment as well as government's investment has been active on transport infrastructure. But investment of transport infrastructure has more risks than others due to overforecast of transport demand for ensuring project validity, and cost uncertainty arising from financial crisis, commodity prices and so on. In the case of Incheon international airport express, after 2 years and 6 months, Incheon international airport express is opened, Korail take over equity stake in private investor due to the problems of MRG(Minimum Revenue Guarantee) be contracted with private investor. Not only that, in other case of Yong-in light rail, it is ongoing for legal disputes between Yong-in local government and private investor on account of opening delaying. On current Investment Assessment System of Transport Infrastructure, Risk Management system on investment of transport infrastructure is inadequate because Sensitivity Analysis in economic efficiency have been performed on the simple method which only changes benefits, expense and social discount rate. For this reason, this study analyze risks for investment of transport infrastructure demand forecast, and rise to the management practice for every particular item.

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