터널 화재시 승객의 개인적 위험도 계산에 대한 확률적 접근

The probability approach for the personal risk calculation of the passenger due to a tunnel fire

The land transportation is the most common way to transport passengers as well as freight among other mode of transportations and consequently more likely to be constructed for faster and convenient travel In this regard, the demand for tunnel constructions will be increasing and the safety inside the tunnel will be considered major concern more than ever. In this paper, we show probabilistic methodology to calculate the personal risk of each evacuee starting from a different location in a tunnel on fire. Passenger evacuation time and smoke spread time are both assumed to be continuous random variables having specific distributions. The evacuation of passengers at each location and the safety facilities inside the tunnel are also crucial factors to calculate the probability of death.