대한전기학회:학술대회논문집 (Proceedings of the KIEE Conference)
- 대한전기학회 2008년도 제39회 하계학술대회
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- Pages.111-112
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- 2008
피크 부하의 불확실성을 고려한 전력계통의 신뢰도 산출
Reliability Evaluation considering Fuzzy-based Uncertainty of Peak Load Forecast
- Kim, Dong-Min (Hanyang University) ;
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Kim, Jin-O
(Hanyang University)
- 발행 : 2008.07.16
초록
Although two types of uncertainty such as randomness and fuzziness simultaneously exist in power systems, yet they have been treated as distinct fields to evaluate the power system reliability. Thus, this paper presents a reliability assessment method based on a combined concept of fuzzy and probability. To reflect the two-fold uncertainty, a modified load duration curve(MLDC) is proposed using the probability distribution of historical load data in which a fuzzy model for the peak load forecast is embedded. IEEE RTS system was used to demonstrate the usefulness and applicability of the proposed method, and the reliability indices were obtained using the proposed MLDC. The results show a wider insight into impact of load fuzziness on uncertainties of reliability indices for power systems.
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