Likelihood Estimation of Release Incidents in Chlorine$(Cl_2)$ Facility

염소$(Cl_2)$시설에 대한 누출가능성 예측

Likelihood analysis was used for the revision of release probability/frequency in chlorine Injection facilities used in chlorine process. Typically these facilities consist of pressure cylinder, vaporizer, pipeline, measuring equipment and safety equipment. This paper described the incident scenarios considered, likelihood analysis procedure and the selection and application of basic events and for failure rates of mechanical components. Human errors were also considered. The major objective of this paper is to estimate the likelihood of each determined incident scenarios. We estimated failure rates of mechanical components based on likelihood analysis procedure. Human errors were also considered. It was estimated to have $5.73{\times}10^{-5}\;Cl_2$ leak per year during the major $Cl_2$ handling process. The probability of failure in scrubber system was $4.11{\times}10^{-2}/demand$.