TEMPORAL CLASSIFICATION METHOD FOR FORECASTING LOAD PATTERNS FROM AMR DATA

We present in this paper a novel mid and long term power load prediction method using temporal pattern mining from AMR (Automatic Meter Reading) data. Since the power load patterns have time-varying characteristic and very different patterns according to the hour, time, day and week and so on, it gives rise to the uninformative results if only traditional data mining is used. Also, research on data mining for analyzing electric load patterns focused on cluster analysis and classification methods. However despite the usefulness of rules that include temporal dimension and the fact that the AMR data has temporal attribute, the above methods were limited in static pattern extraction and did not consider temporal attributes. Therefore, we propose a new classification method for predicting power load patterns. The main tasks include clustering method and temporal classification method. Cluster analysis is used to create load pattern classes and the representative load profiles for each class. Next, the classification method uses representative load profiles to build a classifier able to assign different load patterns to the existing classes. The proposed classification method is the Calendar-based temporal mining and it discovers electric load patterns in multiple time granularities. Lastly, we show that the proposed method used AMR data and discovered more interest patterns.