An Estimation of Port Traffic and the Policy of Port Development;Based on the Busan New Port

해상물동량 예측과 항만개발정책;신항을 중심으로

In North-East Asia, Port traffic in Asia-North America sea route has been rapidly increasing due to economic growth in China and ASEAN. Furthermore, the major shipping companies directly call at northern chinese ports like Qingdao, Dalian and Tianjin without passing through Korean ports on Asia-North America sea route. To acquire a port traffic and develop a hub port, governments in North-East Asia have intensively invested in the development of port. Therefore, Busan new port and Gwangyang port have been developed in Korea. According to the medium-long term development planning, the port should give a enormous budget investment for the port facilities construction. So the inaccurate estimation may lead to the unreasonable port development policy. Firstly, based on the estimation of Chiang Bong-Gyu & Yang Hang Jin(2005), this study gave a comparison with the estimation of Ministry of Maritime Affairs and Fisheries(2001) and OSC/Glori(2005). Secondly, taking into account the influence factors for port traffic, this study made an estimation of port traffic for Busan new port. On the basis of this estimation, this study is compared with the estimation of Ministry of Maritime Affairs and Fisheries(2001) and OSC/Glori(2005). In conclusion, in case of the development of Busan new port, based on the estimation of Ministry of Maritime Affairs and Fisheries(2001), this study should the high possibility that the Busan new port will be serious lack of the port facilities in the year of 2011. And according to the OSC/Glori(2005)'s estimation result, there is a lack of the port facilities, though we have modified the port investment plan.