Prediction of Potential Landslide Sites Using Deterministic model

결정론적 모형을 이용한 산사태 위험지 예측

  • 차경섭 (서울대학교 농업생명과학연구원) ;
  • 장병욱 (서울대학교 지역시스템공학과) ;
  • 이행우 (농업기반공사 농어촌연구원) ;
  • 노수각 (서울대학교 지역시스템공학과)
  • Published : 2005.10.07

Abstract

The objective of this thesis is to develop a prediction system of potential landslide sites to apply to the prevention of landslide disaster which occurred during the heavy rainfall in the rainy season. The system was developed by combining a modified slope stability analysis model and a hydrological model. The modified slope stability analysis model, which was improved from 1-D infinite slope stability analysis model, has been taken into consideration of the flexion of the hill slopes. To evaluate its applicability to the prediction of landslides, the data of actual landslides were plotted on the predicted areas on the GIS map. The matching rate of this model to the actual data was 92.4%. And the relations between wetness index and landform factors and potential landslide were analyzed.

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