Probabilistic Security Analysis in Composite Power System Reliability

복합전력계통 신뢰도평가에 있어서 확률론적 안전도연구

This paper discusses a probabilistic method for power system security assessment. The security analysis relates to the ability of the electric power systems to survive sudden disturbances such as electric short circuits or unanticipated loss of system elements. It consists of both steady state and dynamic security analyses, which are not two separate issues but should be considered together. In steady state security analysis including voltage security analysis, the analysis checks that the system is operated within security limits by OPF (optimal power flow) after the transition to a new operating point. Until now, many utilities have difficulty in including dynamic aspects due to computational capabilities. On the other hand. dynamic security analysis is required to ensure that the transition may lead to an acceptable operating condition. Transient stability, which is the ability of power systems to maintain synchronism when subjected to a large disturbance. is a principal component in dynamic security analysis. Usually any loss of synchronism may cause additional outages and make the present steady state analysis of the post-contingency condition inadequate for unstable cases. This is the reason for the need of dynamic studies in power systems. Probabilistic criterion can be used to recognize the probabilistic nature of system components while considering system security. In this approach. we do not have to assign any predetermined margin of safety. A comprehensive conceptual framework for probabilistic static and dynamic assessment is presented in this paper. The simulation results of the Western System Coordinating Council (WSCC) system compare an analytical method with Monte-Carlo simulation (MCS).