대한전기학회:학술대회논문집 (Proceedings of the KIEE Conference)
- 대한전기학회 2005년도 추계학술대회 논문집 전력기술부문
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- Pages.35-38
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- 2005
시계열 기상 모델을 이용한 동적 송전 용량의 예측
Prediction of Dynamic Line Rating by Time Series Weather Models
- Kim, Dong-Min (Dept. of EE. Hanyang University) ;
- Bae, In-Su (Dept. of EE. Hanyang University) ;
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Kim, Jin-O
(Dept. of EE. Hanyang University)
;
- Chang, Kyung (Dept. of IE. Dankook University)
- 발행 : 2005.11.18
초록
This paper suggests the method that forecast Dynamic Line Rating (DLR). Thermal Overload Risk (TOR) of next time is forecasted based on current weather condition and DLR value by Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS). To model weather element of transmission line for MCS, we will propose the use of weather forecast system and statistical models that time series law is applied. Also, through case study, forecasted TOR probability confirmed can utilize by standard that decide DLR of next time. In short, proposed method may be used usefully to keep safety of transmission line and reliability of supply of electric Power by forecasting transmission capacity of next time.
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