Development of Probabilistic Fatality Estimation Code for Railway Tunnel Fire Accidents

철도터널 화재시 승객 생존율 예측을 위한 확률론적 평가코드 개발연구

Tunnel fire accident is one of the critical railway accidents, together with collision and derailment. For the safe operation many tunnel design guidelines are proposed but many Korean railway tunnels do not satisfy these guidelines. For the safety improvement, current safety level is estimated in this study. But so many uncertainties in major input parameters make the safety estimation difficult. In this study, probabilistic techniques are applied for the consideration of uncertainties in major input parameters. As results of this study, probabilistic safety estimation code is developed.