수요관리 프로그램의 잠재량 평가방안

Evaluation Mechanism of DSM Potentials

Restructuring of electricity industry is going on for the purpose of introducing competition and after separation of generation and retail business and introduction of competition, substantial change is expected in overall electric power system. In other words, DSM projects are divided with public projects and private projects. Particularly for public project, it is essential to evaluate the DSM volumes by program. This paper tries to derive the ways for achieving the necessary DSM goal in the electricity industry in Korea. First of all, by analyzing the load in Korea, we forecast the standard demand and estimate the technological potentials of each program in considering DSM technological indicators. Moreover, by using economic analysis by program, we estimate economic potentials and finally, we estimate the potentials by program in considering the DSM policy. We estimate the potentials by using random method because application methodology and procedures by program are not established until now, which leads to not obtaining transparency for implementation effect by program. Therefore, this paper estimates the future potentials of DSM projects by using the logical and systematic analytic method and establishing database for DSM basic indicator. The DSM goals estimated by this method will be reflected to mid/long term nation-wide resource planning, which will mitigate anticipated power supply shortage and be applied to derive desirable energy demand/supply structure.