Introduction of TAR(Threshold Autoregressive) Model for Short-Term Load Forecasting including Temperature Variable

온도를 변수로 갖는 단기부하예측에서의 TAR(Threshold Autoregressive) 모델 도입

This paper proposes the introduction of TAR(Threshold Autoregressive) model for short-term load forecasting including temperature variable. TAR model is a piecewise linear autoregressive model. In the scatter diagram of daily peak load versus daily maximum or minimum temperature, we can find out that the load-temperature relationship has a negative slope in lower regime and a positive slope in upper regime due to the heating and cooling load, respectively. In this paper, daily peak load was forecasted by applying TAR model using this load-temperature characteristic in these regimes. The results are compared with those of linear and quadratic regression models.