Proceedings of the KIEE Conference (대한전기학회:학술대회논문집)
- 2000.11a
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- Pages.184-186
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- 2000
Introduction of TAR(Threshold Autoregressive) Model for Short-Term Load Forecasting including Temperature Variable
온도를 변수로 갖는 단기부하예측에서의 TAR(Threshold Autoregressive) 모델 도입
- Lee, Kyung-Hun (Dept. of EE, Hanyang University) ;
- Lee, Yun-Ho (Dept. of EE, Hanyang University) ;
- Kim, Jin-O (Dept. of EE, Hanyang University)
- Published : 2000.11.25
Abstract
This paper proposes the introduction of TAR(Threshold Autoregressive) model for short-term load forecasting including temperature variable. TAR model is a piecewise linear autoregressive model. In the scatter diagram of daily peak load versus daily maximum or minimum temperature, we can find out that the load-temperature relationship has a negative slope in lower regime and a positive slope in upper regime due to the heating and cooling load, respectively. In this paper, daily peak load was forecasted by applying TAR model using this load-temperature characteristic in these regimes. The results are compared with those of linear and quadratic regression models.
Keywords