Determination of epicenters and magnitudes of future earthquakes based on the historical earthquake catalogues

역사지진 기록을 기초로한 지진규모와 위치 예측 방법

Three historical earthquake catalogues were compared with each other in the view of frequency of events per century, cumulative magnitude distribution, and annual earthquake occurrence rate in each unit grid of 0.1°by 0.1°. And, a method to determine earthquake epicenters and magnitudes was proposed given the historical earthquake data. With this method, the epicenters and magnitudes of future earthquakes in Korean penninsula for 1,000 years were generated with each earthquake catalogue. Earthquake PGAs with 10% exceedance probability in Seoul were calculated for each catalogue and compared.