한국지능정보시스템학회:학술대회논문집 (Proceedings of the Korea Inteligent Information System Society Conference)
- 한국지능정보시스템학회 2000년도 추계정기학술대회:지능형기술과 CRM
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- Pages.489-497
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- 2000
인공신경망 앙상블을 이용한 옵션 투자예측 시스템
A Forecasting System for KOSPI 200 Option Trading using Artificial Neural Network Ensemble
초록
After IMF situation, the money market environment is changing rapidly. Therefore, many companies including financial institutions and many individual investors are concerned about forecasting the money market, and they make an effort to insure the various profit and hedge methods using derivatives like option, futures and swap. In this research, we developed a prototype of forecasting system for KOSPI 200 option, especially call option, trading using artificial neural networks(ANN), To avoid the overfitting problem and the problem involved int the choice of ANN structure and parameters, we employed the ANN ensemble approach. We conducted two types of simulation. One is conducted with the hold signals taken into account, and the other is conducted without hold signals. Even though our models show low accuracy for the sample set extracted from the data collected in the early stage of IMF situation, they perform better in terms of profit and stability than the model that uses only the theoretical price.