Conditional Event Matching Prediction of Nonlinear Phenomena of Insulator Pollution in Coastal Substations Based on Actual Database

A prediction method of conditional event matching pre-diction (EMP) for a purpose of predicting nonlinear phenomena of insulator pollution was proposed in this paper. The EMP was used if the conditional probability for increase of insulator pollution exceeded a threshold value. A performance of the EMP was strongly related to selection of database of events and a closeness function. By use of the prediction of the insulator pollution based on the conditional EMP, reliable decision making for the washing timing of the polluted insulators was e-valuated based on actual data in Kasatsu substation, Japan.