Proceedings of the KSRS Conference (대한원격탐사학회:학술대회논문집)
- 1999.11a
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- Pages.107-114
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- 1999
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- 1226-9743(pISSN)
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT OVER INDIAN AGRICULTURE - A SPATIAL MODELING APPROACH
- Priya, Satya (Center for Spatial Information Science University of Tokyo) ;
- Shibasaki, Ryosuke (Center for Spatial Information Science University of Tokyo)
- Published : 1999.11.01
Abstract
The large-scale distribution of crops Is usually determined by climate. We present the results of a climate-crop prediction based on spatial bio-physical process model approach, implemented in a GIS (Geographic Information System) environment using several regional and global agriculture-environmental databases. The model utilizes daily climate data like temperature, rainfall, solar radiation being generated stocastically by in-built model weather generator to determine the daily biomass and finally the crop yield. Crops are characterized by their specific growing period requirements, photosynthesis, respiration properties and harvesting index properties. Temperature and radiation during the growing period controls the development of each crop. The model simulates geographic/spatial distribution of climate by which a crop-growing belt can also be determined. The model takes both irrigated and non-irrigated area crop productivity into account and the potential increase in productivity by the technical means like mechanization is not considered. All the management input given at the base year 1995 was kept same for the next twenty-year changes until 2015. The simulated distributions of crops under current climatic conditions coincide largely with the current agricultural or specific crop growing regions. Simulation with assumed weather generated derived climate change scenario illustrate changes in the agricultural potential. There are large regional differences in the response across the country. The north-south and east-west regions responded differently with projected climate changes with increased and decreased productivity depending upon the crops and scenarios separately. When water was limiting or facilitating as non-irrigated and irrigated area crop-production effects of temperature rise and higher
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