이산사건 시뮬레이션을 사용한 시스템의 설계

System Design Using Discrete Event Simulation

In this paper we use discrete simulation method to get the criteria of system evaluation required in the case of designing the complicated probabilistic event system having discrete probabilistic variables and to search the effective and reliable alternatives to satisfy the objective value of the given system through on-line, single run within the short time period. If we find the alternative we construct the algorithm which change values of decision variables and determining alternative by using the stopping algorithm which end the simulation in the steady state of system. In order to prevent the loss of data when we analyze the acquired design alternative in the steady state we provide the background of the estimation of the autoregressive model and mean and confidence interval for evaluating correctly the objective function obtained by the small amount of output data through the short time period simulation.