건설공사의 확률적 위험도분석평가

Probabilistic Risk Assessment for Construction Projects

Recently, in Korea, demand for establishment of systematic risk assessment techniques for construction projects has increased, especially after the large construction failures occurred during construction such as New Haengju Bridge construction projects, subway construction projects, gas explosion accidents etc. Most of existing risk analysis modeling techniques such as Event Tree Analysis and Fault Tree Analysis may not be available for realistic risk assessment of construction projects because it is very complex and difficult to estimate occurrence frequency and failure probability precisely due to a lack of data related to the various risks inherent in construction projects like natural disasters, financial and economic risks, political risks, environmental risks as well as design and construction-related risks. Therefor the main objective of this paper is to suggest systematic probabilistic risk assessment model and demonstrate an approach for probabilistic risk assessment using advanced Event Tree Analysis introducing Fuzzy set theory concepts. It may be stated that the Fuzzy Event Tree AnaIysis may be very usefu1 for the systematic and rational risk assessment for real constructions problems because the approach is able to effectively deal with all the related construction risks in terms of the linguistic variables that incorporate systematically expert's experiences and subjective judgement.