A FORECASTING METHOD FOR FOREST FIRES BASED ON THE TOPOGRAPHICAL CLASSIFICATION SYSTEM AND SPREADING SPEED OF FIRE

On April 27,1993, a forest fire occurred in Morito-area, Manba-city, Gunma-prefecture Japan. Under the prevailing strong winds, the fire spread and extended to the largest scale ever in Gunma-prefecture. The author chartered a helicopter on May 5, one week after the fire was extinguished, and took aerial photos of tile damaged area, and investigated the condition. of the fire through field survey and data collection. The burnt area extended. over about 100 hectares, and the damage amounted to about 190 million yen (about two million dollar). The fire occurred at a steep mountainous area and under strong winds, therefore, md and topography strongly facilitated the spreading, It is the purpose of this paper to report a damage investigation of the fire and to develop the forecasting method of forest fires based on the topographical analysis and spreading speed of fire. In the first place, I analyze the topographical structure of the regions which became the bject of this study with some topographical factors, and construct a land form classification ap. Secondly, I decide the dangerous condition of each region in the land form classification map according to the direction of the wind and spreading speed of f'kre. In the present paper, I try to forecast forest fires in Morito area, and the basic results for the forecasting method of forest fires were obtained with the topographical classification system and spreading speed of fire.