서울 수도권 일원의 지진위험 분석

Analysis of seismic Risk of Seoul Metropolitan Area

The seismic risk in Seoul Metropolitan Area(latitude 37.0$^{\circ}$~37.8$^{\circ}$, longitude 126.5$^{\circ}$~127.5$^{\circ}$)based on all Korean earthquake data of Modified Mercalli Intensity equal to or greater than V is evaluated by extreme value method and point source method. The seismic risk estimated from all data turned out to be lower than from the data since the Chosen dynasty during which seismic data appear to be rather complete. The damaging earthquake of park horizontal ground acceleration grater than 0.1g turns out to occur with 90% probability of being exceeded in 200 years when the data since the Chosen Dynasty are used.