Prediction of Plant Operator Error Mode

원자력발전소 운전원의 오류모드 예측

The study of human erroneous actions has traditionally taken place along two different lines of approach. One has been concerned with finding and explaining the causes of erroneous actions, such as studies in the psychology of "error". The other has been concerned with the qualitative and quantitative prediction of possible erroneous actions, exemplified by the field of human reliability analysis (HRA). Another distinction is also that the former approach has been dominated by an academic point of view, hence emphasising theories, models, and experiments, while the latter has been of a more pragmatic nature, hence putting greater emphasis on data and methods. We have been developing a method to make predictions about error modes. The input to the method is a detailed task description of a set of scenarios for an experiment. This description is then analysed to characterise thd nature of the individual task steps, as well as the conditions under which they must be carried out. The task steps are expressed in terms of a predefined set of cognitive activity types. Following that each task step is examined in terms of a systematic classification of possible error modes and the likely error modes are identified. This effectively constitutes a qualitative analysis of the possibilities for erroneous action in a given task. In order to evaluate the accuracy of the predictions, the data from a large scale experiment were analysed. The experiment used the full-scale nuclear power plant simulator in the Halden Man-Machine Systems Laboratory (HAMMLAB) and used six crews of systematic performance observations by experts using a pre-defined task description, as well as audio and video recordings. The purpose of the analysis was to determine how well the predictions matiched the actually observed performance failures. The results indicated a very acceptable rate of accuracy. The emphasis in this experiment has been to develop a practical method for qualitative performance prediction, i.e., a method that did not require too many resources or specialised human factors knowledge. If such methods are to become practical tools, it is important that they are valid, reliable, and robust.