대한교통학회:학술대회논문집 (Proceedings of the KOR-KST Conference)
- 대한교통학회 1995년도 제27회 학술발표회
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- Pages.84-98
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- 1995
교통량예측모형의 개발과 평가
TRAFFIC-FLOW-PREDICTION SYSTEMS BASED ON UPSTREAM TRAFFIC
초록
Network-based model were developed to predict short term future traffic volume based on current traffic, historical average, and upstream traffic. It is presumed that upstream traffic volume can be used to predict the downstream traffic in a specific time period. Three models were developed for traffic flow prediction; a combination of historical average and upstream traffic, a combination of current traffic and upstream traffic, and a combination of all three variables. The three models were evaluated using regression analysis. The third model is found to provide the best prediction for the analyzed data. In order to balance the variables appropriately according to the present traffic condition, a heuristic adaptive weighting system is devised based on the relationships between the beginning period of prediction and the previous periods. The developed models were applied to 15-minute freeway data obtained by regular induction loop detectors. The prediction models were shown to be capable of producing reliable and accurate forecasts under congested traffic condition. The prediction systems perform better in the 15-minute range than in the ranges of 30-to 45-minute. It is also found that the combined models usually produce more consistent forecasts than the historical average.
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