한국항해항만학회:학술대회논문집 (Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference)
- 한국항해항만학회 1994년도 추계학술발표회
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- Pages.49-58
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- 1994
QUANTIFICATION OF THE EFFECTIVENESS OF VESSEL TRAFFICSERVICES
초록
The methods of estimation of VTS effectivenss are compared and the worldwide literature related to the VTS effectiveness is reviewed. The review suggests three potential approaches ; simulation ; synthesis of expert opinion and statistical analysis of casualties. this study adopted dissimilar approaches to estimate the VTS effectiveness to the earlier studies ; the combination of synthesis of expert opinion and causal analysis of casualty. The VTS effectiveness is derived by multiplying casualty rate reduction factors by the effect level of causal factors. The development of casualty rate reduction factors was based on the questionnaire survey and the evolution of effect levels was based on the causal analysis using functional block diagram. According to these procedures the maximum benefit to be obtained through the introduction of a VTS system was approximately 46 percent overall. The collision reduction rate was estimated to be approximately 50 percent for a VTS system with advanced radar surveillance. And 47 percent of groundings 36 percent of rammings and 21 percent of founderings could be reduced by the introduction of VTS. These figures are more or less the same to the earlier studies. The VTS effectiveness by the different causal factor groups was examined. VTS may reduce about 68 percent of causal factors classified as environmental conditions 40 percent of human factors and 35 percent of technical factors in collision accidents. As a whole 60 percent of environmental factors 41 percent of human factors and 20 percent of technical factors may be prevented by a VTS. The key variable of the effectiveness percentage is the value of weight coefficient
키워드