한국경영과학회:학술대회논문집 (Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference)
- 한국경영과학회 1993년도 추계학술대회발표논문집; 서강대학교, 서울; 25 Sep. 1993
- /
- Pages.24-30
- /
- 1993
Event tree하에서 베이지안 기법을 이용한 신뢰도 예측
Bayesian reliability prediction under event tree
초록
When modeling a complex system we use an event tree to analyze propagation of failure. An event tree cannot represent the statistical interrelationships among parameters, but it can be represented as a statistically identical influence diagram so that parameter updating can be easily performed. After updating parameters we can calculate posterior distribution of the failure rate for each path. But exact distribution requires considerably complex numerical integration. We propose an approximation method to calculate the posterior and derive the predictive distribution of the time to next failure. Finally we introduce the system which implements our methodology.
키워드