MIXTURE OF CUMULANTS APPROXIMATION 법에 의한 발전시뮬레이션에 관한 연구

A STUDY ON THE PROBABILISTIC PRODUCTION COST SIMULATION BY THE MIXTURE OF CUMULANTS APPROXIMATION

This paper describes a new method of calculating expected energy generation and loss of load probability (L.O.L.P) for electric power system operation and expansion planning. The method represents an equivalent load duration curve (E.L.D.C) as a mixture of cumulants approximation (M.O.C.A), which is the general case of mixture of normals approximation (M.O.N.A). By regarding a load distribution as many normal distributions-rather than one normal distribution-and representing each of them in terms of Gram-Charller expansion, we could improve the accuracy of results. We developed an algorithm which automatically determines the number of distribution and demarcation points. In modelling of a supply system, we made subsets of generators according to the number of generator outage: since the calculation of each subset's moment needs to be processed rapidly, we futher developed specific recursive formulae. The method is applied to the test systems and the results are compared with those of cumulant, M.O.N.A and Booth-Baleriaux method. It is verified that the M.O.C.A method is faster and more accurate than any other methods.